Iran War Ceasefire Teeters on Disputes 04/09 06:07

   A tentative ceasefire in the Iran war staggered Thursday under the weight of 
Israel's intense bombardment of Beirut, Tehran's continued chokehold on the 
Strait of Hormuz, and uncertainty over whether negotiators can find common 
ground on a range of other differences.

   DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) -- A tentative ceasefire in the Iran war 
staggered Thursday under the weight of Israel's intense bombardment of Beirut, 
Tehran's continued chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, and uncertainty over 
whether negotiators can find common ground on a range of other differences.

   Hours after the ceasefire was announced -- amid disagreement over whether it 
included a pause in fighting between Israel and Hezbollah -- Israel pounded 
Beirut with airstrikes, resulting in the deadliest day in the country since the 
war began on Feb. 28.

   Iran and the U.S. -- which both declared victory in the wake of the 
ceasefire announcement -- appeared to try to pressure each other. Semiofficial 
news agencies in Iran suggested forces have mined the Strait of Hormuz, a 
crucial waterway for the world's oil whose closure has proved Tehran's greatest 
strategic advantage in the conflict. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, warned 
that U.S. forces would hit Iran even harder than before if it did not fulfill 
the agreement.

   But what that agreement is remains in deep dispute. Beyond whether Lebanon 
is included, there are questions over what will happen to Iran's stockpile of 
enriched uranium, how and when normal traffic will resume through the strait, 
and what happens to Iran's ability to launch missile attacks in the future.

   The chief of Iran's nuclear agency said protecting Tehran's right to enrich 
uranium is "necessary" for any ceasefire talks with the United States.

   Mohammad Eslami, who leads the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, made the 
remarks Thursday to journalists, including one from The Associated Press, 
during commemorations for the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in 
Tehran.

   "It is a part of the necessary (things) that nobody speaks about," Eslami 
said, referring to the U.S. refusal to acknowledge enrichment as one part of 
Iran's 10-point plan for a permanent ceasefire.

   The U.S. and Iran are due to meet in Pakistan for talks this weekend.

   Israeli strikes on Lebanon threaten the ceasefire

   Lebanon's health ministry said at least 203 people were killed and more than 
1,000 wounded in widespread Israeli strikes in central Beirut and other areas 
of Lebanon on Wednesday, when Israel intensified its attacks on the Iran-backed 
Hezbollah militant group, which joined the war in support of Tehran.

   The death toll was the highest for a single day in Lebanon during more than 
five weeks of renewed war between Israel and Hezbollah.

   Israel said Thursday it killed Ali Yusuf Harshi, an aide to Hezbollah leader 
Naim Kassem. Hezbollah did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

   Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has insisted that an end to the war 
in Lebanon was part of the ceasefire deal, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin 
Netanyahu and Trump said it was not.

   On Thursday, Netanyahu said Israel will continue striking Hezbollah "with 
force, precision and determination."

   "Whoever acts against the citizens of Israel will be harmed," Netanyahu 
wrote on social media.

   A New York-based think tank warned the ceasefire " hovers on the verge of 
collapse."

   "Even if Lebanon was formally outside the deal, the scale of Israel's 
strikes was likely to be viewed as escalatory, nonetheless," the Soufan Center 
wrote in an analysis. "Israel's strikes can be understood both as an effort to 
drive a wedge between Iran and its proxies and as a response to being allegedly 
sidelined in the original ceasefire discussions."

   Lebanon's state-run National News Agency reported Thursday that an Israeli 
strike overnight had killed at least seven people in southern Lebanon. The 
Israeli military did not immediately acknowledge the strike.

   Oil prices remain high amid uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz

   Semiofficial news agencies in Iran published a chart Thursday suggesting the 
country's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard put sea mines into the strait during 
the war -- a message that may be intended to pressure the U.S.

   The chart, released by the ISNA news agency and Tasnim, showed a large 
circle marked "danger zone" in Farsi over the route ships take through the 
strait, through which 20% of all traded oil and natural gas once passed.

   Only a trickle of ships have passed through the strait since the war began 
after a few were attacked and Iran threatened to hit any that it deemed 
connected to the U.S. or Israel. Ships appeared to continue to avoid the strait 
Wednesday, despite the ceasefire: Data from Kpler showed only four vessels with 
their trackers on passed through.

   The chart suggested ships travel through waters closer to Iran's mainland 
near Larak Island, a route that some ships were observed taking during the war. 
It was dated from Feb. 28 until April 9, and it was unclear if the Guard had 
cleared any mines since then.

   Iran's deputy foreign minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, told the BBC on Thursday 
that his country will allow ships to pass through the strait in accordance with 
"international norms and international law" once the United States ends its 
"aggression" in the Middle East and Israel stops attacking Lebanon.

   The strait's de facto closure has caused oil prices to skyrocket -- raising, 
in turn, the cost of gasoline, food and other basics far beyond the Middle 
East. Oil prices fell on news of the ceasefire Wednesday, but began to climb as 
uncertainty over the deal grew.

   The spot price of Brent crude, the international standard, was around $98 
Thursday -- up about 35% since the war began.

   Trump warned that U.S. warships and troops will remain around Iran "until 
such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with."

   If it is not, "then the 'Shootin' Starts,' bigger, and better," Trump wrote 
in a social media message.

   Peace talks expected in Pakistan

   The White House said that Vice President JD Vance would lead the U.S. 
delegation for talks in Islamabad aimed at ending the war, which are set to 
start Saturday.

   There appear to be many points of disagreement to address, including whether 
Iran will be allowed to formalize a system of charging ships to use the strait 
that it has instituted. That would upend decades of precedent treating it as an 
international waterway that was free to transit.

   The fate of Iran's missile and nuclear programs -- the elimination of which 
were major objectives for the U.S. and Israel in going to war -- also remained 
unclear. The U.S. insists Iran must never be able to build nuclear weapons and 
wants to remove Tehran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which could be 
used to build them, should it choose to pursue the bomb. Iran insists its 
program is peaceful.

   Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. would work with Iran to remove the buried 
uranium, though Iran did not confirm that. In one version of the deal that Iran 
published, it said it would be allowed to continue enrichment.